India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2023

China will cease to be the most populous country in the world this April 2023 when India surpasses it demographically.

Currently, China has 1.412 million people, while India has 1.408 million. However, India’s birth rate is higher than China’s, so the reigning country will be dethroned in the first half of this year.

A rate that is reduced

Between the two countries they represent a third of the world’s population.

During 2022, in China there were more births than deaths, with 10.6 million children.

In India in the 1950s, women registered 5.7 births, but now they only register 2. Despite this, India has added more than 1 billion people since independence in 1947, and its population is expected to grow for another 40 years.

Both countries have registered different birth policies. While China was concerned with reducing it, that of India favored the increase in births. However, it also turned to the birth control trend.

For the same reason, that India replaces China as the most populous country in the world does not necessarily mean a risk since the trend in both territories is to reduce births.

Rising income and improved access to health and education have helped Indian women have fewer children than before, effectively flattening the growth curve.

social consequences

But that India goes to first place can mean problems in other areas beyond numbers.

India coming to have a larger population than China could, for example, strengthen its claim for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which has five permanent members, including China , the BBC comments .

On the other hand, having a very young population (one in five people under the age of 25 in the world is from India ), it will open up a need for jobs. Without having to give birth or care for a child, more and more women will also re-enter the workforce.

And there is also the case of migration. 200 million Indians have migrated within the country, between states and districts, and their number is set to grow. Most are workers who leave the towns for the cities to find work.