SpaceX: Starship’s first orbital flight only has a 50% chance of success, according to Elon Musk

Despite being the founder and CEO of SpaceX , Elon Musk points out that the success of the first orbital flight of his new  Starship space vehicle is only 50% successful.


SpaceX  would have a difficult time for the first orbital flight of its Starship ship according to its very founder and CEO. Elon Musk pointed out that the probability of success of the important mission outside our planet for the company’s new vehicle is practically a coin toss.

“I am not saying it will reach orbit, but I guarantee excitement. Therefore, it will not be boring!” , indicated the magnate during an interview  he gave at the Morgan Stanley Conference on March 7. The first orbital flight of Starship , the gigantic spacecraft SpaceX has been developing, will launch from the company’s South Texas facility in April, its chief executive said.

a coin toss

Starship , the vehicle with which SpaceX intends to take people and cargo to the Moon and Mars in addition to other spaceflight activities in the coming years, is continuing its development. This massive stainless steel craft is shaping up to be the most powerful rocket ever to fly, packing 2.5 times more thrust during liftoff than NASA ‘s iconic Saturn V , according to Elon Musk .

Another of the most promising features of this vehicle is that it is designed to be fully reusable quickly, an advance that the tycoon considers necessary for the colonization of Mars and other space exploration missions to be viable. The company is currently building several Starships at its South Texas facility ( Starbase ) and they are scheduled to launch in succession in the coming months.

“I think we have an 80% chance of reaching orbit this year. It will probably take a couple more years to achieve full and rapid reusability , ” Musk said in the aforementioned interview.

Cool head for SpaceX and its promising Starship

While it is somewhat discouraging to hear about the likelihood of success for Musk ‘s first orbital Starship flight , it is not surprising that the businessman wants to temper expectations of the ship’s orbital debut since they often fail, as was seen. at the beginning of March with the new H3 rocket from Japan and in January with the RS1 from ABL Space System .

In fact, Musk had already groomed space exploration enthusiasts before when SpaceX ‘s Falcon Heavy made its first liftoff attempt in February 2018. “Hopefully it gets far enough off the pad that it doesn’t cause damage. I would consider that.” even a victory, to be honest” , said the tycoon despite the fact that, fortunately, this operation turned out to be successful.

However, it is important to note that the Falcon Heavy is a variant of the already established SpaceX Falcon 9 , one of its most recognized vehicles, so the success in its first takeoff does not have much merit. Starship , for its part, is more complex and innovative as it uses 33 of SpaceX ‘s next-generation Raptor engines in its Super Heavy first stage and six of these in its upper stage.